Manufacturing’s Experience with Stagflation
I have speculated this year about the prospects for stagflation given sticky inflation and a…
2025
Dr. Duru Powell Balks At the Next Step of Hopeful Monetary Policy
When Powell announced the resumption of easing monetary policy, he said the balance of economic…
October Beige Book Includes Signs of Higher Price Pressures in 2026
I have taken a greater interest in the Beige Book because the Federal Reserve has…
Financing Costs Do Not Impact Calculated Inflation
The August inflation report (CPI) came in as “expected” but still hot and sticky and…
August Beige Book Points Toward Higher Inflation to Come
The Federal Reserve’s August Beige Book sang a tune similar to the song from the…
Powell Places His First Step On the Stairs Of Hopeful Monetary Policy
The current adventures in monetary policy take me back to the early pandemic times when…
Powell’s Promises: Containing Tariff-Driven Inflation and Risks to Dual Mandate
Introduction: Powell’s Promises In his latest press conference on monetary policy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome…
July Beige Book Reinforces A Bottoming in CPI
The Federal Reserve’s July Beige Book sang a tune similar to the one from the…
Tom Lee Dismisses Tariff Inflation — But Data, Theory, and Research Say Otherwise
Introduction: Tom Lee’s Non-Inflationary Thesis In a recent interview, Fundstrat Co-founder and Head of Research…
Powell vs. Waller: Divided Fed Faces Tariff-Driven Inflation Uncertainty
Monetary intrigue has emerged in the form of an apparent divide inside the Federal Reserve…