Core Inflation Softens, but the Final Mile to 2% Remains Sticky
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in January and increased 2.4% year-over-year, according to…
Bond market
Dr. Duru July Beige Book Reinforces A Bottoming in CPI
The Federal Reserve’s July Beige Book sang a tune similar to the one from the…
Tom Lee Dismisses Tariff Inflation — But Data, Theory, and Research Say Otherwise
Introduction: Tom Lee’s Non-Inflationary Thesis In a recent interview, Fundstrat Co-founder and Head of Research…
Powell’s (Not So) Hidden Plea to End the U.S.’s Tariff War
During last week’s press conference on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, I heard a narrative…
An Early Look At Stagflationary Pressures
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s April 2025 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey provided an early…
Why TIPS Failed Spectacularly In 2022… And Is NOW the Time to Buy?
Why TIPS Failed TIPS are Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. The name implies that purchasing these…
A Fed Calm Before A Market Storm?
I left the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on monetary policy with three simple observations besides…
A Fresh Opportunity to Fade Bonds As A Marginal Change in Inflation Ignites A Near Oversold Market
Financial markets set up the next trade to fade the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond…
The Federal Reserve’s “Hawkishness” Finally Gets the Stock Market’s Attention
Attention! For three months, the bond market has flagged stabilizing inflation starting with the Fed’s…
Inflation Stabilization Firms with Robust Services Spending
The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, hit a…