FXA rode the economic tailwinds to a breakout for a 15-month high.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggests that the unemployment rate has likely peaked at October’s 4.4% with December’s reading at 4.1%.

Even more important for monetary policy, the consumer price index (CPI) in Australia is above the RBA’s target 2-3% range. After dropping as low as 1.9% last year, the CPI suddenly rebounded above the RBA’s target range. Improving economic numbers will thus threaten to keep inflation higher than target if the RBA does not pivot to a tighter policy stance.

And then there are commodities, the core of Australia’s economy. Companies like iron ore producer Rio Tinto have enjoyed strong rallies to start the year as investors wake up to the economic realities of massive infrastructure and energy investments to support the AI boom along with the increasing attractiveness of physical assets as major countries pile on more and more debt. I started accumulating RIO in October and included the stock on my shopping list for 2026. So far, the price action has yet to deliver any kind of buyable dip. The strength of these commodity plays suggests that commodity-rich economies are going to experience upward pressure on their currencies. The breakout in RIO aligns well with the breakout in the Australian dollar.

Conclusion

All signs point to continued strength in the Australian dollar. A pivot in monetary policy will all but confirm a bias higher for the currency. Moreover, Australia looks relatively more attractive as a country versus major economies like Japan and the U.S. where policy and political turmoil along with mounting debt levels could keep those respective currencies under constant pressure. My main question now is how and when will fresh buying opportunities come.

Be careful out there!

Full disclosure: long FXA

The post Australian Dollar Breaks Out As Economic Winds Blow Toward Rate Hikes appeared first on Inflation Watch.

Daly’s steadfast perspective is important to remember every time the stock market rallies in anticipation of peak inflation and/or a “Fed pivot.” Indeed, Daly warned that the Fed needs to be prepared for inflation to be more persistent than expected. For context, Daly was one who was unwilling to predict peak inflation ahead of what turned out to be the “CPI shocker” that delivered a surprise of higher core inflation. Part of Daly’s persistence comes from what she and the Fed see as inflation’s greater potential for economic harm than the short-term consequences of normalizing monetary policy. Daly noted that over two years real wages have fallen 9%. She even shared an anecdote of a worker who told her about how he “loses” money when he goes to buy something with his earnings (an anecdote that speaks to nominal wages failing to keep up with nominal increases in prices).

Other interesting nuggets from the interview:

• Rates are probably now around the neutral rate, and the Fed needs to get slightly restrictive.
• The length of time rates stay neutral (or slightly restrictive) is more important than the specific level.
• 50% of today’s inflation is driven by demand (thus justifying the Fed’s desire to get slightly above neutral), 50% from supply.
• Daly refused to take the bait on the question of whether the Fed was purposely trying to induce a recession, trying to force losses on the stock market, or intent on hiking rates until something breaks.
• Daly insisted the Fed is forward-looking and recognizes lagging indicators of inflation.
• Daly pushed back on the notion the Fed needs to coordinate with global central banks. She insisted that the Fed must stick to its domestic dual mandate.

While the signs a few months ago were clear from commodity prices that the Fed’s actions were impacting inflation, the recent strength in oil threatens to rekindle inflation fears from the average person. For example, gas prices look like they are already done declining. The United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA) broke out today. UGA looks like it double-bottomed in September.

The recent downtrend in United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA) came to an end this week with a powerful breakout above 50 and 200DMA resistance.

Similarly, diversified commodities producer BHP Group (BHP) looks like it is holding a bottom in place since late last year.

BHP Group (BHP) has so far held its lows from a year ago. While upside may be limited, BHP also looks like it is done going down for now.

If these bottoms are indicative of what is ahead, then any soft readings in the near-term inflation numbers could be, well, transitory… (tongue-in-cheek intended!)

Be careful out there!

Full disclosure: long BHP

The post Fed’s Daly: The Market Is Wrong About A Hump in 2023 Fed Rates appeared first on Inflation Watch.

These suffocating mortgage rates are an important sign of victory for a Fed whose primary inflation concerns come from housing.

An even clearer sign of victory comes from the bond market, specifically the breakeven rates on five- and 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Reuters reported that these TIPS “slid to 2.636% and 2.362%, respectively, a level last seen in September 2021.” Nancy Davis, managing partner and chief investment officer at Quadratic Capital Management LLC, accordingly observed that “the breakeven market, the difference between TIPS versus regular Treasuries, is dramatically downward sloping. It’s barely above the Fed’s long-term average (inflation) target of 2%.” In other words, the bond market is already anticipating that the Fed’s aggressive push to normalize monetary policy and fight inflation will work.

A broad swath of commodities and commodity-related stocks are suffering under the weight of the Fed’s success. The charts below are just a sample: diversified commodities producer BHP Group Limited (BHP), iron ore producer Rio Tinto (RIO), copper producer Freeport McMoRan (FCX), and the metals and mining ETF (XME) (charts from TradingView.com). Even agricultural commodities like corn and lumber look like they have topped. Perhaps these declines represent the early signals of a recession. If so, those concerns may wait for a post-inflationary day.

BHP printed a double-top in 2022 BELOW the 2021 highs.

RIO topped out in 2022 well below 2021’s highs. It now trades at the November, 2021 low and is at risk of challenging the November, 2020 low.

FCX is close to erasing ALL its 2021 gains.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) quickly reversed its entire 2022 breakout.

Spot corn prices closed below the uptrending 200-day moving average for the first time since January. The topping formation for 2022 looks like the dreaded head and shoulders top (shoulders in March and June, the head in April).

Lumber prices topped out in 2022 well below the 2021 highs.

Be careful out there!

Full disclosure: no positions

The post The Fed’s Hawkish Pressure Is Working Against Inflation appeared first on Inflation Watch.

This amazing growth has come with costs, primarily in the form of higher labor costs. In “Lovesick Miners Raise Costs for Rio, BHP,” Bloomberg describes how the isolation of work in the remote mining areas makes these jobs very unattractive. Mining companies like BHP Biliton (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO) not only have to pay extremely high wages as compensation, but they also must include other perks to help miners deal with the isolation. For example, work schedules for miners can include extended trips to major cities in between extended shifts. Still, major shortages of labor exist in many skills. Australia will likely need to rely more and more on foreign workers to do these jobs – the isolation THOSE workers will feel will likely be many times what Australian miners feel. So, this dynamic will be important to watch.

Overall, this article is a fascinating look into the lives of Australian miners and how their work impacts their ability to gain and maintain relationships.

The post Australian mining companies struggle with higher labor costs appeared first on Inflation Watch.

One of several examples of increasing price pressures:

“Contract prices for the second quarter, which are based on the average spot market price from December to February, are set to rise to about $170 a tonne for Australian iron ore, excluding freight costs. That is 40-45 per cent higher than the same quarter in 2010 and nearly triple the $61 price in place until March 2010 under the old annual benchmark pricing system.”

See “Record iron ore prices loom” for more details.

The post Iron ore prices set to continue their upward pressure appeared first on Inflation Watch.

For example, in its latest earnings report, AK Steel (AKS) announced its plans for achieving greater pricing power by passing on input prices more quickly to its customers. We have also chronicled many of AK Steel’s price increases over the past year.

In “Steel-Price Increases Creep Into Supply Chain“, The Wall Street Journal demonstrates how steel companies are responding to higher input costs by passing along these costs to their customers:

“Steelmakers have increased prices six times, for a total increase of 20% to 30%, since November on basic flat-rolled steel, used in everything from cars to toasters, to offset higher input costs of raw materials, such as iron ore and coal. Higher costs for steel, which are expected to continue well into this year, are hitting bottom lines of companies and prompting additional price increases.”

The general expectation seems to insist that these pricing pressures will not percolate into final end consumer prices. However, I believe this thinking is just the lingering aura of the deflationary mindset of the last recession, and it will fade as surely as commodity prices have soared.

Disclosure: Author owns shares in AK Steel

The post Steel prices pushing through the economy appeared first on Inflation Watch.

On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported: “German Import-Price Inflation Accelerates to Fastest in More Than 29 Years.” The various statistics on inflation in Germany are eye-popping:

• Import-price inflation accelerated to 12 percent, the highest rate since October 1981, from 10 percent in November
• In the month, prices increased 2.3 percent, almost double the 1.2 percent forecast by economists
• Energy was 34.2 percent more expensive in December than a year earlier
• Iron ore prices soared 98.4 percent
• Non-iron ore metals cost 37.9 percent more
• German consumer-price inflation accelerated to 1.9 percent last month, pushing the euro-area rate to 2.2 percent, the first time it has breached the ECB’s 2 percent limit in more than two years

For those of us who never believed that deflation was a serious threat given the monetary actions of central banks across the globe, we must now wonder how much longer will it take for inflation to start hitting consumers across a broad array of purchased goods.

The post Germany faces increasing inflation pressures appeared first on Inflation Watch.

Arcelor Mittal (MT), AK Steel (AKS), and U.S. Steel (X) all reported this week. I have included some quotes from their earnings report to provide some examples of the pressures that these companies face.

Arcelor Mittal

“In Q3 the business performed towards the lower end of our expectations against a background of seasonally lower volumes, weakening spot prices and higher costs. Our outlook for Q4 remains cautious as the expected higher input prices continue to work through the business and demand remains muted, though with some regional differences.”

“Sales were lower during the third quarter of 2010 as compared to the second quarter of 2010 due to seasonally lower volumes (-8%), partly offset by higher average steel selling prices (+4%).”

“Sales in the Stainless Steel segment were $1.4 billion for the three months ended September 30, 2010, a decrease of 12% as compared to $1.5 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2010. Sales declined primarily due to lower steel shipments (-8%) as discussed above and lower average steel selling prices (-5%) due to a weak market environment and pressure from imports.”

AK Steel

“The company said its average selling price for the third quarter of 2010 was $1,075 per ton, a 2% decrease from the $1,101 per-ton price in the second quarter of 2010, and approximately 8% higher than the $994 per-ton average price realized in the third quarter of 2009.”

“2010 Iron Ore Price Increase Impacts Third Quarter:
AK Steel said that it has agreed with two of its three primary iron ore suppliers that the requirements for the establishment of the annual benchmark price of iron ore for 2010 have been met. That 2010 benchmark is an increase of 98.65% over the 2009 benchmark, and is higher than the 65% increase the company had previously estimated for the first half and for its third quarter guidance. The third primary supplier of iron ore to the company has not acknowledged yet that an annual benchmark price has been established. Instead, that supplier continues to seek a price increase in excess of the 98.65% annual benchmark price. The company does not agree that this supplier has a right under the parties’ contract to charge based on other than an annual benchmark price and, for purposes of the iron ore purchased from this supplier, the company has used an estimated benchmark price increase of 98.65% in its third quarter financial results.”

“The company’s third quarter 2010 financial results reflect the year-to-date impact of the higher iron ore price, which increased the company’s third quarter operating loss by approximately $76.0 million, or $52 per ton.”

“AK Steel said it expects shipments of approximately 1,300,000 to 1,350,000 tons for the fourth quarter, with an average selling price per ton decrease of approximately 4% from the third quarter. While the company expects fourth-quarter maintenance costs to decrease by about $20 million from the third quarter, it nonetheless expects to incur an operating loss of approximately $80 per ton for the fourth quarter of 2010, largely due to the lower shipments and selling prices combined with continued high iron ore and other raw material costs.”

U.S. Steel

(Quotes transcribed and paraphrased)

“Results declined in 3rd quarter from 2nd from lower flat-rolled average prices, higher raw material costs in flat-rolled segment and European operations: decreased shipments and production volumes, decreased average realized prices, increased costs for facility repair and maintenance (higher activity, not input costs), and consumption of higher cost coal, coke and iron ore purchased to support earlier facility restarts. Decreased spot prices more than compensated for increased contract prices.”

“In 4th quarter, expect lower average realized prices, lower spot and contract.”

“Tubular operations had higher average prices for fifth quarter in a row. Decreased costs for steel substrate. Not expecting same price performance in 4th quarter but costs should continue down.”

Disclosure: author owns X and AKS

The post Steel companies squeezed by lower product prices and higher input costs appeared first on Inflation Watch.

AKS will raise prices for specialty flat-rolled stainless steel products by about 5% to 10%. These products include “…tensilized, bright annealed and special finishes, along with special mechanical requirements.”

Full disclosure: author owns shares of AKS

The post AK Steel increases prices to offset rising material costs appeared first on Inflation Watch.

See “The steel industry repeats alarm over recent developments in raw materials markets” for more details.

The post Steel companies worried about increasing input prices appeared first on Inflation Watch.