Comments on: Financial Conditions Make A Monetary Roundtrip and Undercut the Need for Rate Cuts https://inflationwatch.drduru.com/financial-conditions-make-a-monetary-roundtrip-and-undercut-the-need-for-rate-cuts/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=financial-conditions-make-a-monetary-roundtrip-and-undercut-the-need-for-rate-cuts Watching for inflation here, there and everywhere Thu, 13 Jun 2024 06:18:31 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.4 By: Fed’s Powell Avoids the Obvious: Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts Make Little Sense | Inflation Watch https://inflationwatch.drduru.com/financial-conditions-make-a-monetary-roundtrip-and-undercut-the-need-for-rate-cuts/#comment-320 Thu, 13 Jun 2024 06:18:31 +0000 https://inflationwatch.wordpress.com/?p=3265#comment-320 […] “Fed’s Powell Avoids Rate Cut Talk While April CPI Keeps Hope Alive” and in March in “Financial Conditions Make A Monetary Roundtrip and Undercut the Need for Rate Cuts“. Now, with no forecasted progress in core PCE inflation for this year, the Fed seems to risk […]

]]> By: Dr. Duru https://inflationwatch.drduru.com/financial-conditions-make-a-monetary-roundtrip-and-undercut-the-need-for-rate-cuts/#comment-319 Tue, 19 Mar 2024 16:05:13 +0000 https://inflationwatch.wordpress.com/?p=3265#comment-319 In reply to Anonymous.

Well said!

To clarify, I am not making a prediction, I am describing what I see as the main factor most capable of supporting my skepticism. All manner of things could go wrong (or right) and certainly the market chooses what it cares about.

]]> By: Anonymous https://inflationwatch.drduru.com/financial-conditions-make-a-monetary-roundtrip-and-undercut-the-need-for-rate-cuts/#comment-318 Tue, 19 Mar 2024 15:46:17 +0000 https://inflationwatch.wordpress.com/?p=3265#comment-318 Regarding “The Federal Reserve is probably the last catalyst between now and the Presidential election that has a chance of validating my skepticism.”

Fair warning: like economists predicting recessions, I see many catalysts that never materialize.

That admitted: resolution or escalation of the active shooting wars going on in the mideast and eastern Europe are potential catalysts. So are changes to the health or legal status of either presidential candidate. Some might call these “long tail” (low probability) catalysts, but I’d argue they’re well above “black swan” (extremely low) probability.

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