Comments on: Over-stretching the case for inflation https://inflationwatch.drduru.com/over-stretching-case-for-inflation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=over-stretching-case-for-inflation Watching for inflation here, there and everywhere Thu, 09 Oct 2014 08:50:38 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.4 By: The Arthurian https://inflationwatch.drduru.com/over-stretching-case-for-inflation/#comment-210 Thu, 09 Oct 2014 08:50:38 +0000 http://inflationwatch.wordpress.com/?p=2112#comment-210 In reply to The Arthurian.

Well, it took almost a year. Good grief! But I have finally looked into it more.

See “An Interactive Inflation Experiment” —

http://newarthurianeconomics.blogspot.com/2014/10/an-interactive-inflation-experiment.html

]]> By: The Arthurian https://inflationwatch.drduru.com/over-stretching-case-for-inflation/#comment-209 Sun, 13 Oct 2013 19:55:35 +0000 http://inflationwatch.wordpress.com/?p=2112#comment-209 Give it another four years, Dr. Duru. We’ll likely see inflation then.

The FRED plot of Base Money growth for 1925-1965 shows a series of three large spikes about five years apart (1934, 1938, 1943).

The similar plot of price increases also shows a series of three large spikes about five years apart (1942,1947, 1952).

There is a lag of about 8 years between the base money increases and the price increases. It’s been only about five years since the Quantitative Easing began. Give it another three of four years, if the same forces are at work.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=nkv

Note a fourth, smaller spike in base money around 1952, matched by a fourth, smaller spike in prices around 1956-57. Substantially less delay for this price response, because money velocity had finally started to pick up. The private sector was already growing.

I’ve been meaning to look into this more, but have not done so.

Art

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