Here is the NAR’s breakdown for 2010 rent changes (followed by last year’s change in rent):

Office Market: -7.2% (2009: -12.7%)
Industrial Market: -9.6% (2009: -10.9%)
Retail Market: -2.4% (2009: -4.0%)
Multifamily Market: -3.4% (2009: -3.6%)

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A dramatic decline in U.S. apartment construction could lead to a shortage of rental housing in the years ahead.

This year, developers are expected to start about 87,000 units – less than a third of what they build on average each year. And the outlook for 2011 isn’t much better.

“We will be facing a severe shortage of apartments in the next few years, which will increase the cost of housing for consumers,” Sharon Dworkin Bell, senior staff vice president of the National Association of Home Builders, said at this week’s convention in Las Vegas. “We believe we should have 300,000 starts every year to have a stable market.”

That’s not likely in the foreseeable future.

“We have a combination of limited supply coming on and increased demand when the economy recovers,” Bell said.

Michael Costa, a partner in McFarlane Costa Housing Partners of California, said, “We know that the demand for housing – especially rental housing – is going to be there. Each month we are not able to get our starts going, we fall further and further behind.”

At some point, a lack of rental units will take a bite out of consumers’ pocketbooks. “We are predicting now we may see upwards of double-digit rent increases,” Costa said.

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The average rent for a unit in a large Orange County apartment complex fell to $1,473 a month in the fourth quarter of 2009, the fifth straight quarter to see monthly rents drop.

Apartment tracker RealFacts reports today that numerous empty apartments forced local landlords to cut rent $105 a month on average — 6.7% — vs. the fourth quarter of 2008. And it’s the lowest average rent in 3 1/2 years.

We at Inflation Watch are well aware of rising prices for health insurance, college tuition, food, and many other items. But as long as apartment rents continue to fall, inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) will probably remain quite tame.

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