FXA rode the economic tailwinds to a breakout for a 15-month high.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggests that the unemployment rate has likely peaked at October’s 4.4% with December’s reading at 4.1%.

Even more important for monetary policy, the consumer price index (CPI) in Australia is above the RBA’s target 2-3% range. After dropping as low as 1.9% last year, the CPI suddenly rebounded above the RBA’s target range. Improving economic numbers will thus threaten to keep inflation higher than target if the RBA does not pivot to a tighter policy stance.

And then there are commodities, the core of Australia’s economy. Companies like iron ore producer Rio Tinto have enjoyed strong rallies to start the year as investors wake up to the economic realities of massive infrastructure and energy investments to support the AI boom along with the increasing attractiveness of physical assets as major countries pile on more and more debt. I started accumulating RIO in October and included the stock on my shopping list for 2026. So far, the price action has yet to deliver any kind of buyable dip. The strength of these commodity plays suggests that commodity-rich economies are going to experience upward pressure on their currencies. The breakout in RIO aligns well with the breakout in the Australian dollar.

Conclusion

All signs point to continued strength in the Australian dollar. A pivot in monetary policy will all but confirm a bias higher for the currency. Moreover, Australia looks relatively more attractive as a country versus major economies like Japan and the U.S. where policy and political turmoil along with mounting debt levels could keep those respective currencies under constant pressure. My main question now is how and when will fresh buying opportunities come.

Be careful out there!

Full disclosure: long FXA

The post Australian Dollar Breaks Out As Economic Winds Blow Toward Rate Hikes appeared first on Inflation Watch.

These suffocating mortgage rates are an important sign of victory for a Fed whose primary inflation concerns come from housing.

An even clearer sign of victory comes from the bond market, specifically the breakeven rates on five- and 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Reuters reported that these TIPS “slid to 2.636% and 2.362%, respectively, a level last seen in September 2021.” Nancy Davis, managing partner and chief investment officer at Quadratic Capital Management LLC, accordingly observed that “the breakeven market, the difference between TIPS versus regular Treasuries, is dramatically downward sloping. It’s barely above the Fed’s long-term average (inflation) target of 2%.” In other words, the bond market is already anticipating that the Fed’s aggressive push to normalize monetary policy and fight inflation will work.

A broad swath of commodities and commodity-related stocks are suffering under the weight of the Fed’s success. The charts below are just a sample: diversified commodities producer BHP Group Limited (BHP), iron ore producer Rio Tinto (RIO), copper producer Freeport McMoRan (FCX), and the metals and mining ETF (XME) (charts from TradingView.com). Even agricultural commodities like corn and lumber look like they have topped. Perhaps these declines represent the early signals of a recession. If so, those concerns may wait for a post-inflationary day.

BHP printed a double-top in 2022 BELOW the 2021 highs.

RIO topped out in 2022 well below 2021’s highs. It now trades at the November, 2021 low and is at risk of challenging the November, 2020 low.

FCX is close to erasing ALL its 2021 gains.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) quickly reversed its entire 2022 breakout.

Spot corn prices closed below the uptrending 200-day moving average for the first time since January. The topping formation for 2022 looks like the dreaded head and shoulders top (shoulders in March and June, the head in April).

Lumber prices topped out in 2022 well below the 2021 highs.

Be careful out there!

Full disclosure: no positions

The post The Fed’s Hawkish Pressure Is Working Against Inflation appeared first on Inflation Watch.

This amazing growth has come with costs, primarily in the form of higher labor costs. In “Lovesick Miners Raise Costs for Rio, BHP,” Bloomberg describes how the isolation of work in the remote mining areas makes these jobs very unattractive. Mining companies like BHP Biliton (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO) not only have to pay extremely high wages as compensation, but they also must include other perks to help miners deal with the isolation. For example, work schedules for miners can include extended trips to major cities in between extended shifts. Still, major shortages of labor exist in many skills. Australia will likely need to rely more and more on foreign workers to do these jobs – the isolation THOSE workers will feel will likely be many times what Australian miners feel. So, this dynamic will be important to watch.

Overall, this article is a fascinating look into the lives of Australian miners and how their work impacts their ability to gain and maintain relationships.

The post Australian mining companies struggle with higher labor costs appeared first on Inflation Watch.