Comments on: Why the Excitement? A Q&A on Monetary Policy with Generative AI

By: LGI Homes: Buying Into The Margin Recovery (NASDAQ:LGIH) – CryptoFinance7

LGI Homes: Buying Into The Margin Recovery (NASDAQ:LGIH) – CryptoFinance7 — Thu, 23 Nov 2023 15:50:12 +0000

[…] of seasonal strength for the stocks of home builders which in turn is riding the coattails of a market celebrating a presumed end to Fed rate hikes (thanks to a well-liked October CPI report). Altogether, LGIH is up over 35% at the time of […]

By: Despite the Inflation Celebrations, the Case Against Team Transitory Still Stands | Inflation Watch

Wed, 15 Nov 2023 08:54:31 +0000

[…] No matter the lens, these levels and incremental declines are hardly an occasion for final victory. While the Fed has every reason to stop hiking rates and watch what happens from here, these numbers do not tell me the Fed can pack up its toys and go home. Stiglitz takes care of that concern by calling the 2% inflation target arbitrary: “There is no evidence that countries with 2% inflation do better than those with 3% inflation; what matters is that inflation is under control. That is clearly the case today.” On the surface, the logic makes sense except that the period of “Great Moderation”, where deflation was the Fed’s biggest concern, was a period where PCE stayed below 2%. We do not have experience in THIS economy with a Fed that overtly allows inflation to stay well above 3%…and the Fed is clearly in no mood to push its luck. […]

By: Canada’s Version of Higher for Longer: Inflation Risks Have Increased | Inflation Watch

Sun, 12 Nov 2023 01:06:31 +0000

[…] Why the Excitement? A Q&A on Monetary Policy with Generative AI → […]

By: Dr. Duru

Dr. Duru — Thu, 09 Nov 2023 03:30:37 +0000

In reply to Anonymous. To clarify, I am describing the mentality of the market. Staying flat is not of interest to an easy money hungry market. I am anticipating the connect the dots type thinking that is jumping from "rate hikes are done" to "rate cuts are coming"

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 09 Nov 2023 02:47:11 +0000

[Whoops, I accidentally invoked the “Reply” button; the foregoing comment was just supposed to be context for the following…]

I take issue with the second sentence of the above quote. Rate hikes can end, but a constant-rate regime could then begin that persists for years. Example: most of the 20-teens. Personally, I’d love to see rates stay around 5% for the rest of this decade; it would revive a saving component that is a necessary part of a balanced economy but has been overly supplanted in the USA by credit card debt.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 09 Nov 2023 02:38:53 +0000

You wrote: “This kind of persistent longing for easier monetary policy is likely to pervade financial markets as the assumption of an end to rate hikes takes deeper root in market sentiment and psychology. If rate hikes have ended then, logically, rate cuts must be imminent.”