The New Recession Obsession: The Sahm Rule
I first heard of the Sahm Rule on a trading podcast earlier this week. When…
Federal Reserve
Dr. Duru Fed’s Powell Avoids the Obvious: Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts Make Little Sense
The Federal Reserve rolled out its latest statement on monetary policy which included an updated…
Fed’s Powell Avoids Rate Cut Talk While April CPI Keeps Hope Alive
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made a timely appearance in Amsterdam for a meeting of…
Financial Conditions Make A Monetary Roundtrip and Undercut the Need for Rate Cuts
Last week, financial markets stared in dismay at “sticky” inflation numbers on the consumer and…
From Inflation Fizzle to Sizzle
Inflation is probably still dead, but its “stickiness” still has the potential to spook financial…
The Federal Reserve Makes It Official: Inflation Is Dead
At the risk of making Inflation Watch a lot less relevant and topical, I am…
Despite the Inflation Celebrations, the Case Against Team Transitory Still Stands
The excitement over a slightly softer than “expected” October inflation print extended from financial markets…
Canada’s Version of Higher for Longer: Inflation Risks Have Increased
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has completed a 180-degree turn from its goldilocks outlook on…
Why the Excitement? A Q&A on Monetary Policy with Generative AI
I left last week’s Federal Reserve conference call with the impression that nothing had changed.…
What Powell Missed In His Jackson Hole Speech Explaining Inflation’s Drivers
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell included a neat and tidy explanation of the drivers of…